Market participants on the Polymarket decentralized blockchain forecasting platform have positioned their bets against the likelihood of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s release from detention, following his arrest in Paris, a development that took many by surprise. The odds, set to conclude with a verdict on Durov’s release by August 31, have dwindled to a mere 25%, according to data from Polymarket.
Initially, bettors were more optimistic about Durov’s release, pegging the odds at an even 50%. However, this sentiment shifted drastically against his favor as more information emerged regarding the stance of French authorities and the judiciary’s inclination toward keeping him in pre-trial detainment.
While the betting pool concerning Durov’s release might seem modest at roughly $69,000, especially when compared to significantly larger wagers on the platform—such as a notable $733 million bet on the forthcoming U.S. presidential election—it vividly illustrates the speculative nature of prediction markets.
Polymarket’s premise is simple yet compelling: participants earn financial rewards if their predictions come to fruition, and forfeit their stakes if proven wrong. This simplicity belies the sophisticated underlying mechanics, where the price of a “share” in these prediction markets typically fluctuates between $0.00 and $1.00. This range signifies the perceived likelihood of a particular outcome, thereby setting the “odds.”
Durov’s arrest is part of a preliminary investigation by France’s National Anti-Fraud Office, centered on accusations of the Telegram platform’s alleged facilitation of a spectrum of criminal activities. This stems from purported inadequate content moderation and non-cooperation with law enforcement.
The allegations, which the platform has dismissed as “absurd,” accuse the Russian-born entrepreneur, who also holds citizenship in France, the UAE, Russia, and Saint Kitts and Nevis, of allowing unchecked criminal behavior on his app. Given the French legal framework, Durov could be detained for up to 96 hours before a judicial decision is required on extending his detention. Factors such as Durov’s considerable net worth, estimated at $15.5 billion, and the capabilities for international travel could heighten the perception of him as a potential flight risk.
French media outlet TF1, which initially reported the story, indicated a strong likelihood of Durov facing pretrial detention, according to an anonymous investigator. The investigation envelops a wide range of alleged illicit activities, including links to terrorism, drug trafficking, sale of stolen goods, fraud, among others.
Despite the circumstances of Durov’s detention, Telegram has issued a statement defending its founder, asserting his innocence, and highlighting the platform’s compliance with EU regulations, including the Digital Services Act. Telegram’s statement also reflected on the broader debate of platform liability, terming the accusations of negligence as “absurd.”